Swiss Re Institute Warns of Rising Natural Catastrophe Risks Despite 2026's Low Losses

In the first half of 2026, global insured natural catastrophe losses were estimated at USD 42 billion, the lowest since 2020, according to Swiss Re Institute. Severe convective storms were the largest contributor, at USD 28 billion, yet still below the long-term trend.

Record heat and dry conditions in June foreshadow a challenging wildfire season in Europe. With 64% more hot days than in the 1950s, Europe is seeing increased wildfire risks. These fires remain a minor share of insured losses but represent the fastest-growing weather peril globally.

Despite a quieter start to the year, the second half often yields more catastrophic events, with hurricanes being a major factor. Insured losses indicate a higher concentration of damage in insured markets, contrasting with the uninsured impact from Venezuela's earthquake.