EXPEDEON AG Original-Research: Expedeon AG (von GBC AG): BUY

Directive transparence : information réglementée

07/10/2019 09:02

Original-Research: Expedeon AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Expedeon AG

Unternehmen: Expedeon AG
ISIN: DE000A2YN801

Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 3.20 Euro
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31/12/2020
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

Half-year figures for 2019 meet our expectations, significant increase in revenue and earnings, stock price target and BUY-rating confirmed

Expedeon management confirmed its previous forecast with the publication of the 2019 half-year figures. As a result, double-digit sales growth compared with 2018 and adjusted EBITDA of more than EUR 2.0 million is still expected. Based on the 30.8% increase in revenue achieved in the first six months of 2019, the revenue forecast should be easily achievable. On the basis of the second quarter of 2019, in which revenues of EUR 3.90 million were generated, the run rate projected for the financial year is EUR 15.60 million. Against this backdrop, our revenue forecasts of EUR 15.93 million, which also include a continuation of the positive growth momentum in the second half of the year, are realistic assumptions.

In addition to increased revenue from existing products (expansion of sales, expansion of partner business, cross-selling, etc.), Expedeon AG should also benefit in the medium term from the introduction of new products that are based on existing technology. Within the platform technologies TruePrimeTM, Lightning-Link(R) and CaptSureTM, new products could be introduced in the short and medium term leading to potential revenue of over EUR 20.0 million per year. In addition, products in the field of diagnostics should increasingly complement our product range. Accordingly, we expect sales growth to continue at the same level in the medium term and expect to exceed EUR 20.0 million turnover as early as the coming financial year 2020.

At the earnings level, we also confirm the forecasts published in the research study (see study dated 23/07/19). The EBITDA of EUR 2.18 million that we expect for 2019 Expedeon shares, assuming a constant development of the share price, would amount to an adjusted EBITDA of approximately EUR 3.0 million. Expedeon AG achieved an adjusted EBITDA of EUR 1.21 million for the first six months of 2019, making our EBITDA forecast easily achievable. We expect the EBITDA margin to increase to over 20% in the coming financial years, with EBITDA margins of 35% achievable on the basis of correspondingly high revenue levels combined with an increasing share of high-margin licence revenue. This assumption is shown in the continuity phase of our DCF valuation model.

Due to the fact that half-year development was in line with our expectations in absolute terms, we not only confirm our forecasts, but also leave our DCF valuation model unchanged. We thus confirm our previous stock price target of EUR 3.20 per share and maintain the BUY rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/19119.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
Jörg Grunwald
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
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Date (Time) of completion: 04/10/2019 (1:51 pm) Datum (Time) first distribution: 07/10/2019 (09:00 am)

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