Edison Investment Research Limited
London, UK, 21 January 2021
Nicox (COX): Initiation - Focus on sight
Nicox develops drugs for eye diseases, with lead candidate NCX-470 in Phase III trials targeting the topical treatment of glaucoma by utilising and expanding on an already-established dual IOP-lowering mechanistic approach. Top-line data from Mont Blanc, the first of two Phase III studies, are expected in H122, and we expect a 2024 launch and sales of over €450m in 2030 in the US and major markets. Nicox is well funded through the Mont Blanc inflection point and we derive an rNPV valuation of €304m.
Our Nicox valuation applies a risk-adjusted net present value (nNPV) model with a 12.5% cost of capital and includes the prospects for NCX-470, NCX-4251, and the Vyzulta and Zerviate royalties. We obtain an rNPV of €303.7m. After including €29.4m in end-FY20 net cash, we obtain an equity valuation of €333.1m or €8.99/share. We model that Nicox's funds on hand should last into H222 and that it will raise €40m between 2022 and 2024 before launching NCX-470 in 2024
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