Original-Research: Almonty Industries Inc. (von Sphene Capital GmbH): Buy

Classification of Sphene Capital GmbH to Almonty Industries Inc.

Operational inflection point reached

The Q1/2026 report serves as clear evidence of the company’s significant transformation, in our view. Whilst Almonty has primarily been perceived as a highly speculative tungsten explorer and project developer in recent years, the latest figures increasingly reveal the contours of a strategically positioned commodities company with a substantial capital base, access to institutional capital markets, and significantly improved operational scale. Operational performance in Q1/2026 was characterised in particular by a substantial revenue increase, a significant improvement in operating profitability, and a continued strong liquidity position. At the same time, net profits were significantly distorted due to the IFRS-related non-cash revaluation of derivative financial instruments. Given the continuous and in our view sustainable increase in tungsten prices, we raise our price target to CAD 37.40 from CAD 20.10 per share. Our revised valuation comprehensively incorporates the net present value of both current and future producing assets, including the Sangdong mine (tungsten and molybdenum), Panasqueira, Gentung, and Los Santos, as well as a discounted valuation of the development-stage Valtreixal project. Based on this updated valuation, which implies an upside potential of 48.4% from yesterday’s closing price of CAD 25.20, we reiterate our Buy rating for Almonty Industries.

In Q1/2026, revenue more than tripled to CAD 25.4 mn from CAD 7.9 mn (Q1/2025). Contrary to what one might expect, this increase was not driven by the start of production in Sangdong, but solely by improved operational stability at the Panasqueira mine in Portugal, which remained the Group’s main production asset. At the same time, the development underscores the increasing operational leverage of the business model. Although production costs rose to CAD 11.8 mn from CAD 6.6 mn, the cost base grew significantly more slowly than revenue – with corresponding consequences for operating profitability. Consequently, income from mining operations rose to CAD 13.0 mn from CAD 0.8 mn in Q1/2025.