Sonic SVM and Manic Open-Source the Trader Intelligence Framework

New York, NY, September 10th, 2026, FinanceWire

Built on 3.36 million reconstructed Polymarket positions, the framework brings Solana's smart money tooling to prediction markets and is designed to extend to any venue

NEW YORK, NY, September 10, 2026 (EZ Newswire) -- Sonic SVM today announced the launch of the Trader Intelligence Framework (TIF), developed jointly with Manic, a prediction market trading platform built on Solana.

TIF is an open-source method for measuring which wallets in prediction markets demonstrate genuine forecasting skill, released alongside its full screening criteria, scoring code, and a dated snapshot of the first wallet list.

The framework comes out of what Sonic already does: turning off-chain signals into something transparent and tradable. Prediction markets are where those signals settle to a known answer, which is what makes judgment measurable in the first place, and why Sonic is publishing a standard rather than launching another venue.

On Solana, following smart money has become a default trading behavior. Apps like FOMO built their entire product around it: surface the wallets worth watching, then alert users the moment those wallets move. The behavior works. The verification never did. A memecoin position never settles, so a wallet that sold into a pump looks identical to a wallet that was right, there is no final outcome against which to distinguish the two. Every smart money list in crypto today is a ranking of wallets nobody has been able to grade. Prediction markets are the exception, and they inherited the concept without the tooling: nearly every existing list still ranks wallets by realized profit. Realized profit conflates three weakly related factors — how much a wallet stakes, how long it has been trading, and how accurate its judgment is. Only the third is a property of the trader. The first two are properties of the account.

TIF measures the third alone. Each position is scored by its excess accuracy: the settled outcome minus the entry price. And because forecasting skill does not transfer across domains, scores are produced for each wallet-and-category pair rather than for each wallet, so a trader who is consistently right on politics is not assumed to be right on sports.

Isolating that factor meant rebuilding the record from scratch. TIF reconstructed 3,359,388 Polymarket positions from trade-level fills; 544,716 of them, across 84,889 markets, had both an entry price and a settled outcome and could be scored. Those observations resolve into 3,638 wallet-and-category pairs — the unit TIF ranks.

The two dashed lines are TIF's requirements: a positive edge, and enough settled positions to separate it from luck. Only the upper-right quadrant satisfies both — 87 of the 3,638 pairs, each resting on at least 84 settled positions. Size is not what qualifies them: the highest-earning pair made $6.82 million with no measurable edge. In an out-of-sample forward test, TIF's selections beat the contemporaneous population by 5.42 percentage points of judgment accuracy.

"Solana has spent this cycle building the best consumer trading experience in crypto, and prediction markets are the next category where that plays out," said Alan Zhu, CPO of Sonic. "Most of the ecosystem is competing for the same trading front end. We chose the layer above it. Data and standards are where durable value accrues, by open-sourcing the framework, we want this framework to become the reference standard for how prediction market traders are evaluated, regardless of which venue they trade on.”

Manic is the first application built on the framework. Its newly launched Smart Money section shows which wallets are worth following in a given category, what they have just bought, and at what price they entered relative to where the market is trading now.

"If you have used an app like FOMO to follow smart money on Solana, you already understand the behavior. What has been missing in prediction markets is a defensible answer to who actually qualifies as smart money," said Blake, COO of Manic. "A leaderboard sorted by profit puts the largest accounts at the top whether or not they were right. Our users need to know whether a wallet has an edge in this specific category, and whether there is still room to follow the trade.”

Key Characteristics of the Framework

• Scores judgment, not profit: Stake size and trading duration do not enter the score.
• Scored per category: Skill in one domain is not assumed to transfer to another.
• Sample gated: Every entry on the published list is based on at least 84 settled positions.
• Independently verifiable: The scoring and forward test code are open, allowing anyone to reproduce the published list.
• Venue agnostic: The method requires only trade level fills, the market price at each fill, and the settled outcome.

Polymarket is the first venue Sonic has scored under the framework, and the team intends to extend coverage to additional venues under the same standard. The screening criteria, code, and first wallet list are available today. The continuously updated list, live signals, and notifications are available in Manic's Discover section.

This launch reinforces Sonic's position as infrastructure for consumer applications on Solana, complementing existing partnerships with Chainlink, Pyth, Arkham Intelligence, Symbiosis, and other leading protocols. With over $600 million in Total Value Locked and more than 3 million unique addresses, Sonic continues to emerge as a leading destination for consumer crypto applications.

About Sonic SVM

Sonic SVM is the programmable Attention Network on Solana, turning off chain signals and on chain activity into transparent, tradable Attention Capital Markets. Sonic SVM is the first Solana VM designed for consumer applications and hypercasual games. Backed by $16 million from Bitkraft, Galaxy Interactive, and others, Sonic is accelerating the next cycle of consumer crypto.

About Manic

Manic is a momentum trading and prediction market platform built on Sonic, serving both human traders and AI agents. Its Discover section surfaces live prediction market activity, category level trader rankings, and smart money signals.

About Trader Intelligence Framework

The Trader Intelligence Framework is an open method for evaluating prediction market participants by judgment accuracy rather than realized profit, available at GitHub.

Disclaimer

This press release is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptographic assets and prediction market participation carry significant market risk and volatility. The Trader Intelligence Framework, associated code, live signals, and wallet lists are provided on an "as-is" basis for educational and analytical purposes only. Neither Sonic SVM, Manic, nor their affiliates guarantee any specific trading performance, returns, or financial results from using these open-source tools.

SOURCE: Sonic SVM